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The Vaccine Blog
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Motivated Reasoning: Rhyme Without Reason
What was the most difficult decision you`ve ever had to make? Was it leaving a partner? Cutting someone else important out of your life? Changing careers? Did you have to decide whether or not to do a life changing medical procedure? Did you ever think that you were over emphasizing some facts and de-emphasizing others? What was the intrinsic motivation for this? Do you know what emotions or sentiments this emotes? Why?
Motivated reasoning (like confirmation bias) refers to when emotional biases make people justify decisions not aligned with evidence. It refers to when a person emotes feelings , rather than displaying rational thoughts when reaching conclusions - which we all tend to do, at points. It is seemingly “rhyme without reason” as the title suggests. In other words, the conclusion people want often directs their reasoning, not the other way around. It often happens whether people are aware of it or not. This allows people to (often unconsciously) reach the conclusions they want to draw based on feelings a situation emotes.
A person in this situation usually condones decisions on an emotional level, in contrast to deciding based on evidence actually in front of their eyes. We all tend to be biased, in many contexts. For example, social desirability bias refers to when It's particularly obvious in people's views regarding political leaders and their actions. However, it's also been known to skew how people process scientific information about climate change, the recruitment process for jobs, and even while watching news programmes and weather forecasts. We're all biased. We all have an intrinsic motivation to make statements and judgements using biases we have (eg. social desirability bias). Think about any strong opinion you hold (everyone has at least one). There's probably some degree of bias driving that. In a purely logical world, an outcome based on rational reasoning would be accepted whether it was liked or not. In reality, someone in a highly emotionally charged situation often condones any action or other decision they make on an emotional level.
We like to think of ourselves as rational beings. We`ve evolved out of the forests, we perform calculus and science, we can even share cat videos online! So why aren't we rational? Why do we primarily navigate any situation based on the emotions it emotes? What's the theme here? Well, it's the same as that that runs through many of the cognitive distortions I've discussed here. .Not just in the case of vaccine hesitancy, but in any conspiracy theory. It can be summarized in one word. Emotion. It could almost be said that (for extremists) "motivated reasoning" isn't really REASONING at all. The word “reasoning” suggests being REASONABLE. And basing decisions on what feeling(s) a decision emotes rather than what the evidence points towards. Again, “rhyme without reason.”
So, how does this relate to the anti vaccine movement, and vaccine hesitancy? Why is it worth discussing? The title of an article published on theconversation.com in 2021 captures the question we need to address if we want to understand the anti vaccine movement. “Unpacking parents' reasons for not vaccinating their children: why it matters.” What influences how a person regards their own decisions? Especially when it has the potential to put themselves in danger? When, tragically, it can lead to the death of their children, as has been reported. Motivated reasoning, due to the feelings a difficult decision emotes, is one piece of the puzzle in answering this question. That's why it is so important to understand in the context of vaccine hesitancy and outright anti vaccine extremism.
With regards the history of motivated reasoning, the basic concept has actually been known for about 2,000 years. We`ve known for a long time that people navigate any given situation based on the feelings it emotes. Like many mental models, motivated reasoning was first described by the Ancient Greeks. The Athenian historian and general Thucydides wrote about the enemies of Athens in the 5th century BC. He described their judgements as being based on “blind wishing than upon any sound prediction; for it is a habit of mankind to entrust to careless hope what they long for, and to use sovereign reason to thrust aside what they do not desire”. In the 4th century, the Greek philosopher and polymath Aristotle described akrasia, translated as incontinence or weakness of will. This, he said, occurred when the domination of reason by emotion leads to bad actions. Further, writing about Alexander the Great in the 1st century AD, the Greek historian, military commander, public servant and philosopher Arrian wrote that "Accordingly, as is usual in such cases, not knowing the facts, each man conjectured what was most pleasing to himself".
There have also been a number of very influential papers on motivated reasoning and the feelings it emotes. In his blog, the husband of the late Ziva Kunda writes that her 1990 paper “The Case for Motivated Reasoning” has been cited more than 9,000 times according to Google Scholar, with more than 1,000 citations since 2001. The model she used is described as follows: "Motivation to arrive at a desired conclusion provides a level of arousal, which acts as an initial trigger for the operation of cognitive processes. In order for someone to participate in motivated reasoning, either consciously or subconsciously, that individual first needs to be motivated. Motivation then affects reasoning by influencing the knowledge structures, (beliefs, memories, information) that are accessed and the cognitive processes used."
A study in 2000 by Milton Lodge and Charles Taber revealed that the emotional attachment we have to concepts determines what stored information we draw on when hearing new ideas. This triggers a "how do I feel about this?" reflection. In other words, information processing comes after emotional labeling ie. I either feel good or bad about this. This is how a person sometimes condones a decision at first glance. However, on further reflection, they may find further reasoning or information that condones their decision further.
Are you seeing a theme here? Look at the phrasing- “careless hope”- “the domination of reason by emotion leads to bad actions” “I either feel good or bad about this” - even refer back to the title “rhyme without reason” The feeling or feelings that the situation emotes.. How do I feel? Not “what's the logical conclusion, based on the evidence I have?” It seems we've always known that letting emotions control decisions rarely leads to positive outcomes. And that's perfectly OK in general. Everyday decisions, like when we decide we want to splurge on a takeaway or look at memes for hours.
It's generally OK that we allow emotions to overwhelm us sometimes. It doesn't make you weak, it just makes you human. That said, it becomes more complex when it comes to health decisions that can seriously affect people's lives. Even more so when it comes to vaccines, which impact the lives of almost everyone on the planet. In that context, it's critical to understand motivated reasoning in the context of vaccine hesitancy. So that's what I'm going to examine next.
Humans are pattern-recognition machines. We have an intrinsic motivation to find commonalities and repeating motifs everywhere. We use heuristics (mental shortcuts) to find patterns as quickly as possible. However, we have become so efficient at this, that at times we find patterns where there are none. With regards to this, a mother whose child has just been diagnosed with autism. A very severe, disabling form of autism. Their child won't be able to work, find a life partner, and a third of autistic children are even nonverbal. I`ll ask you to imagine this scenario in your head. Many parents don't have to.
This was the reality for the parents of Trevor, who his mother describes as being “on the lower end of the autism spectrum. His verbal communication is quite limited, he cannot tie his shoelaces and his main food staple is toast with butter, a side of cucumbers and maybe a slice of cheese on a good day”. She also states that Trevor attends a special needs school. Not every child is an autism success story. Approximately a third of autistic children are nonverbal, for instance. They can't communicate what they want. You hear of those with incredible talents ie. musical ability, math, calculating what day of the week any calendar day was, incredible memories etc. However, we rarely hear of more ordinary cases like Trevor's, who will likely struggle with what the rest of us see as milestones in life. His parents will likely be taking care of him for the majority of his life.
Consider what feelings this emotes for the parent. Considering this, it's not so surprising that parents are in an emotionally primed state when they hear of vaccines being linked with autism. Of course there will be feelings that such a scenario emotes. They need answers! If someone has hurt their child, they want the details. Even if it means slightly skewing their reasoning process. What does that mean? Evidence about vaccines will be selectively looked at and scrutinized until they are satisfied it supports what they want to believe (ie. In this case, those vaccines caused their child's autism). This allows attitudes about vaccines to be sustained over time, place, and regardless of what information is given to them.
Therefore it should be clear that vaccine hesitancy has a psychological basis. This is what is key to keep in mind when trying to address it. Facts won't cut it because facts aren't what are really being evaluated here. Emotions and values are (again, “rhyme without reason”). What are their (scientists/medical institutions) values vs mine? Why do they have the right to impede on my freedom? Why do I have to get vaccinated for work? Why is there a need for nationwide vaccine mandates in schools? When extremists criticize each other online, the criticisms are usually of institutions rather than vaccines themselves. So notice the social and political context in all these. The vaccines can serve as a placeholder for the values that people believe scientific and medical authorities are impeding on. Freedom.
With regards to this, there are a number of questions that commonly come to mind for people. When can the government regulate the health decisions of families? Why? Who and/or what condones this? Where is the line drawn between individual freedom and the collective good? Why? Why do I have to vaccinate when herd immunity will protect me? Does this differ between people? If it was superficially about vaccines, the conversation would be much less emotionally charged, less about the feelings that a decision like this emotes. And this is why facts alone don't work when attempting to improve vaccination rates.
Through this (I believe more accurate) framework, let's re-evaluate how to approach patients who are strongly vaccine hesitant or anti vaccine extremists. This involves two main things. The first is identifying when we ourselves are engaging in motivated reasoning. Why? When we become aware of our own thought processes and biases, it's then very easy to identify them in others. From this, we can approach vaccine hesitant patients from a place of empathy and not prejudice. This, while not solving the issue, paves the way for open discussions and hopefully a better outcome. With that, let's look at how to identify motivated reasoning in ourselves and others. It won't be surprising to know that the features are very similar in both cases.
If you Google search "how to identify my biases", you'll be returned a list of articles with the top one being "How to Overcome Unconscious and Hidden Biases". Obviously these websites need an engaging title, but this is an oversimplification. You can't ever completely overcome biases; we have an intrinsic motivation to think in biased ways. You CAN, however, become more aware of them, and of how a person in a specific situation regards and condones their own biases.
5.1 - Emotional attachment
Let's jump in. I`m going to talk about perhaps the most important reason people tend to be biased first of all. Doing the most difficult things first is often the most productive strategy. So here we go: are you emotional when you're discussing your arguments? This is perhaps the most difficult one to think about and explore. It is, however, quite possibly the most important one. Have you had experiences that might make you emotional about the topic? Has your child/family member had an adverse reaction to a vaccine, or a bad experience with a healthcare institution?There are likely memories and feelings that such an experience emotes. The reason I mention this is that emotion is the core theme running through all, or at least many, cognitive biases such as social desirability bias. This may be part of how a person condones a decision relating to what they had a particular experience with..
5.2- Biased Arguments
Here's another key thing. In the same way that you would analyze others' arguments, analyze your own. Consider whether it be seen as polarized, and the feelings it emotes, Make sure you're in a neutral state of mind when you decide to do this seriously. Could there be evidence for the opposite position, and the conclusions it condones? Also try to factor in your own individual situation, and how and why others' positions might be different.
With regards to this, it can be helpful to write out our own arguments.. See them laid out. Divide them into strong, moderate, and weak arguments. Have a friend read them. Have SEVERAL friends read them (depending on how much you trust them). Make them challenge you! When an argument is strong, it will stand up against any and all scrutiny. The evidence will tend to point in a certain direction..
5.3 - Unsupported claims
Are claims you are making actually supported by literature and facts? Research shows that provaccine accounts tend to share URLs linking to news sites and other more reliable sources, while strongly anti-vaccine accounts link to commercial sites for natural living products. This is interesting, seeing as one of the most common criticisms by vaccine hesitant and anti vaccine patients is that healthcare authorities (especially pharmaceutical companies) have commercial interests in selling vaccines. It's very important to analyze the sources you use. If you use news sites, are they reliable news sites? Why? If you read opinion pieces, what condones the arguments or opinions they put forward? This very same reasoning is important for scientific papers. Do they also seem polarized? Usually, polarized arguments suggest that there might be ulterior motives at play.
If you honestly put these into practice, you'll develop an intuition for where yours and others arguments are weak.You`ll eventually intuit when you and others are guilty of “rhyme without reason.”.
Another point to make with regards to intuition is that it won't always stop you being biased Biases tend to be so ingrained it is difficult, bordering on impossible, to remove them completely. With that said,. it's really important to put systems in place that will allow you to identify bias before you decide to accept the conclusions of an article, research paper, or indeed ANY piece of writing. So that's what I'm going to delve into next. Also, what's important to note is that you'll develop your own system for doing this. There's no one standard way that will work for everyone. We all process information differently depending on the biases we have. That's why it is so important to understand them and why you should read over my other articles (shameless self promotion alert!) to do this. That's actually part of the reason I started writing this in the first place.
6.1 - Addressing Emotional Biases
Let's talk about perhaps the most difficult issue first. Do you have an emotional bias one way or another? Is there a specific question, topic or scenario that emotes certain feelings? For most people, the answer will be yes - they will have a topic that has specific emotions it emotes. That might give you some insight into where biases are coming from. Social desirability bias is a significant factor driving such emotions.
6.2 - Evaluate how reliable your arguments are
With regards this; how do you stop yourself from searching for and choosing biased arguments? Well, you can`t totally. We all have some level of intrinsic motivation to prove ourselves right at times. However, there are ways to reduce how biased the arguments you look for are. One I would suggest is to look at a variety of sources for the opposite argument. What about these sources condones their arguments? Are they reputable (ie. the CDC, WHO? Why? Are they known to be reliable and fact-based? There are many such questions you could ask.
6.3 - Make sure to not have biased sources
So, let's talk about the sources you use.It`s easy to instantly share a news article, headline, paper or other source due to the strong feelings it emotes. However, it is important that they are analyzed for trustworthiness. It doesn't matter how prestigious they are, or how much you enjoy them. Do they have a good reputation for spreading accurate information? How do you know? As I`ve already said, what condones any arguments, theories or opinions they put forward? Something else I'd add is not to treat one source as gospel. Different factors come into play from time to time. There might be different writers with different degrees of biases about topics. Maybe a financial incentive came into play suddenly. Even scientific literature is not free from bias. It's important to check for any conflict of interest in papers you read. Even if you agree with the paper`s conclusions, it's helpful to think about whether their data condones the conclusions they are coming to.
6.4- Final piece of advice
My final piece of advice to you in this post is perhaps more basic. However, they are areas people DO neglect. Are you hungry during discussions? Sleep deprived? Ill? Finally, the most important: Does it appeal to your common sense? It's easy to say that we should do these things, but most (myself included!) don`t always or rarely do them.
So, what's the key takeaway here? I`m going to summarize it in a single sentence. The key to understanding others is understanding yourself. Thanks for reading.
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References:
What is Motivated Reasoning? - Simplicable
Unpacking parents' reasons for not vaccinating their children: why it matters (theconversation.com)
Thucydides | Greek historian | Britannica
https://libquotes.com/thucydides/quote/lbw9b1r
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/aristotle-ethics/#Akra
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2270237/
I want to believe: delusion, motivated reasoning, and Bayesian decision theory - PubMed (nih.gov)
Motivated Reasoning | Psychology Today - Waiting for response
9 Types of Bias and the Shocking Ways They Affect Your Recruiting Efforts (socialtalent.com)
Motivated reasoning and climate change (northwestern.edu)
Anti-vaccine movement can be traced to pharma's poor reputation - STAT (statnews.com) - StatNews.com
Motivated Reasoning: A Brief History | Psychology Today
Lodge, Taber 2000. Lodge and Taber (2000). "Three steps toward a theory of motivated political reasoning". Elements of Reason: Cognition, Choice and Bounds of Rationality
Motivated reasoning - Wikipedia
Lodge and Taber (2000). "Three steps toward a theory of motivated political reasoning". Elements of Reason: Cognition, Choice and Bounds of Rationality
My Child is Not An Autism Success Story - Autism Journey
How to Overcome Unconscious and Hidden Biases (wikihow.com)
Understanding Anti Vaxxers And Their Opposition to Vaccines (globalcitizen.org) - Waiting for response
What is Bias? - Identifying Bias - Research Guides at University of Wisconsin-Green Bay (uwgb.edu)
