Why do people believe conspiracies?

Why do people believe conspiracies?

Introduction

A George Takei video gives a number of examples of how people disengage from conspiratorial thinking.

One stated that "My husband was really questioning it but then I went in a private jet and went so high that I was able to see the curvature of the earth first hand. I took a lot of photos and he was convinced after that."

Another; "I was debating a Flat Earther in Mexico, and I asked him about how GPS worked if there were no satellites. He said that they have devices in the ground to route you. I told him the Mexican government is barely able to put decent water pipes in the ground; would he really think they had the tech to put routing devices in the ground? He chuckled with a thousand mile gaze."

Finally; "I convinced a flat earther, temporarily, by asking him if it was possible for a sphere to be so large that you could not tell it was a sphere by simply being on the surface of it. It took him a while, I used an analogy of an extremely long line that was so slightly curved you could not tell so by looking at a small section of it. Eventually, he said yes to the sphere and I told him that was how big the earth is. A few days later, he reverted."

Although this references flat earth and not vaccine conspiracies, specifically, the key is that similar principles apply to why people believe many conspiracies. It's a complex phenomenon influenced by psychological, social, cognitive, and an array of other factors. As conspiracies have the potential to significantly impact the lives of many people, it`s worth spending time breaking down these factors. That`s exactly what I`m going to break down in the next section

Some key reasons why people may believe in conspiracies:

Uncertainty and fear: Conspiracies often arise in times of uncertainty or fear when people feel a lack of control over their lives or face significant challenges. Conspiratorial beliefs can provide a sense of order and explanation for events that might otherwise seem chaotic or random. The most recent, and I think the most obvious example of an uncertain and fearful situation is the COVID-19 lockdowns. Even as a Microbiology student who was writing my thesis on COVID-19, I wasn't prepared for the uncertainty that came with actually living through a pandemic..

We couldn't talk to family, friends, or other loved ones.

Jobs were lost, businesses closed

You can imagine people were desperate to get out of this dreadful situation.

They would do anything to get out of it

People wanted comfort more than anything else

Scientific data certainly isn`t

It`s complex, nuanced, and riddled with jargon

Clear, simple explanations are, and that's exactly what conspiracy theories provide. That's exactly what is needed in such a time. People were emotionally primed, and you can`t effectively problem-solve or think critically like that. That makes conspiracy theories very attractive. Some are likely psychologically, more prone to believing in them than others. However, I imagine that stress and/or uncertainty amplify this tendency.

Cognitive biases: Humans are prone to various cognitive biases, such as confirmation bias (favouring information that confirms preexisting beliefs) and pattern-seeking tendency (finding meaningful patterns even in random data). These biases can lead people to interpret information selectively, searching for evidence that supports their beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence. Also, everyone is prone to them - regardless of IQ, socioeconomic status, education, or anything else.

So, what are these biases?

Belief in conspiracies can be influenced by several cognitive biases that affect the way people process information and form beliefs. Here are some common cognitive biases that can contribute to belief in conspiracies:

2.1 Confirmation Bias: People tend to seek out information that confirms their existing beliefs and disregard or downplay evidence that contradicts them. Someone may believe that all people with green eyes are good at science. It's irrelevant how or why they have this belief; they simply do. Whenever they encounter someone with green eyes who is gifted at science, they will use it as “evidence” to back their claim up. If, on the other hand, they meet a green-eyed person who struggles with STEM, they`ll disregard it. It's easy to see how this principle might apply to someone who believes a conspiracy. A pattern of selectively accepting evidence is established - and that is how most conspiracy theorists maintain their beliefs.

2.2 Illusory Pattern Perception: Humans have a natural tendency to perceive meaningful patterns even in random or unrelated data. This bias, known as pareidolia, can lead people to see connections and patterns where none exist, contributing to the belief in conspiracies.That is, we`re prone to seeing patterns where there actually are none. One of the most common examples of pareidolia, for instance, is people reporting seeing faces in darkness, or in any case where vision is seriously obscured. Others hear noises, names being called when there are none (I`m not referring to schizophrenic attacks or any other diagnosable condition here). I once saw a ominous-looking orange light glowing across my room one night. When I investigated, it was actually a light attached to the end of a pen. It was glowing onto the wall, making it seem much more eerie than it actually was.

2.3 Availability Heuristic: People often rely on immediate examples or easily retrievable information when making judgments or forming beliefs. Stated simply it's easier to remember the social media post, meme, or video you just saw, or a story your friend told you recently than an abstract concept you learned in college years ago, for example. So, if conspiratorial information is readily available, such as through social media or online communities, individuals may overestimate the prevalence or importance of conspiracies.

2.4 Distrust of Authority: A general scepticism or distrust of authority figures or institutions can make individuals more susceptible to conspiracy theories. If someone already believes that authorities are untrustworthy or have hidden agendas, they may be more inclined to accept alternative explanations offered by conspiracies. This is especially true if the message is consistently repeated. Consider the case of someone that has heard friends, family or someone else close to them speak about distrusting a particular institution. Whether or not they agree with it, the listener is going to internalise the message. It`s well documented in psychology research that anything repeated becomes more believable, regardless of how valid it is. That is another key way conspiracies gather followings.

2.5 In-group/Out-group Bias: People have a natural inclination to favour their own social group and view outsiders or "others'' with suspicion. We`re all tribalistic, and want to be liked by the right people. It's unavoidable. We evolved within tribes - if you couldn`t integrate yourself into a tribe, your chances at survival were lowered. Thus, the modern human population is highly tribalistic; and although it was beneficial during earlier stages of evolution, it can cause issues, like hesitancy. Let's say someone grew up within a “natural living community”. Maybe they`ve lived within such a community their whole life. They may have married someone within this community, and even raised their children with certain values. They might have even formed genuinely fulfilling personal and professional connections in it. It's very difficult to turn back at that point.

2.6 Cognitive Dissonance: When confronted with information that contradicts their beliefs, individuals may experience cognitive dissonance, which is the psychological discomfort arising from holding contradictory ideas simultaneously. Many people smoke, drink/eat excessively, or engage in any number of unhealthy behaviours, while being aware of the consequences on health. They may feel guilty as a result. Making the necessary behavioural changes is the best way to ease this.

How a need for control drives conspiratorial thinking

What underlies all this is that conspiracies give people a sense of control in what can be a very uncertain world. That gives way to a sense of empowerment, confidence and stability, regardless of how untruthful their claims might be. This sense of empowerment can underlie many of the extremist actions undertaken by some conspiratorial groups. For that reason, it merits discussion.

Conspiracy theories can provide a sense of control and empowerment to people in several ways:

Sense of empowerment: Conspiracy theories can give individuals a sense of empowerment by making them feel like insiders who possess secret knowledge or have uncovered hidden truths. This can provide a sense of superiority or importance. Maybe someone has been lacking in one or more areas of their life. Perhaps they`ve been feeling this way for a long time. Suddenly, they've come across a community of people within which they are listened to and respected. When you break it down like this it actually starts to make sense why people become entrenched in conspiratorial communities. It's not simply that people are uninformed, lazy, stupid, or anything else negative. Conspiracies can become a huge part of some people`s identity

Counteracting Power Imbalances: Conspiracy theories frequently revolve around the idea of a powerful and malevolent group or entity controlling events for their own benefit. This can contribute to a sense of oppression; which can be amplified by specific events or a series of events. This may also occur if someone has felt oppressed over a long period of time. By pointing out these apparentconspirators, some may feel they are challenging current power structures and levelling the playing field. This can create a sense of empowerment and resistance against perceived oppression.

Lack of critical thinking skills: Some people may lack the necessary critical thinking skills to evaluate information objectively and distinguish between reliable sources and unreliable ones. This can be for a variety of reasons. Someone may become emotionally attached to the community believing the conspiracy, or to other elements of it. Think of a parent who has tragically lost a pregnancy, or a young child, and physicians don't fully understand what caused it. It's much, much easier to point a finger at vaccines than simply accept a universal truth - we just don't know everything in science, medicine, or indeed any field

This understanding forms part of a set of skills called critical thinking. These involve assessing verbal or written data, facts and information, their sources and authors, then deciding whether or not they form a coherent argument for what they claim. This is a complex set of tasks that needs to be constantly practised throughout one`s life and career. (hence, the phrase practising medicine, law, science, and any other field.). For that reason, lacking critical thinking skills is a huge reason some may be prone to conspiratorial thinking.

What critical thinking skills might be lacking in those who believe conspiracies?

Acceptance of Unsubstantiated Claims: Without strong critical thinking skills, individuals may accept claims and information at face value without questioning their validity or seeking supporting evidence. Antivaccine activists, or any conspiratorial group, rely on anecdotes and personal stories to make their claims believable. Although it`s true that personal stories can be engaging, they need to be integrated with facts to have real validity. For instance, antivaccine groups very often share stories of people who claim to be injured by vaccines. You`ll find a multitude of websites, social media profiles, videos and more online, all with stories of these claims. First, I have no doubt that some proportion of people can and do get injured from vaccines. It`s just that it's overwhelmingly rare. No medication or procedure is ever 100% effective in 100% of people.That`s simply how science works. Staying consistent with the logic of “I won't take medication unless there is 0% chance of any side effects' ' would mean boycotting all modern medicine and medical procedures.

Selectively choosing sources: Critical thinking involves assessing the credibility and reliability of sources of information. A lack of critical thinking skills can lead individuals to accept information from dubious or unreliable sources that promote conspiratorial narratives. Some questions that might prompt thought about this include; is the source biased to one side? If so, why might that be? Do the authors have credentials and experience in the relevant area? If not, is it really a reliable source? If so, could they have conflicts of interest? Asking good questions is crucial to thinking critically.

Logical Fallacies: Critical thinking helps individuals identify and avoid logical fallacies, which are errors in reasoning. Conspiracies often rely on fallacious arguments, such as ad hominem attacks, straw man arguments, or false causality. To make this point more concrete,, I`ll give several examples of these. First, an ad hominem attack means insulting an individual instead of actually debunking/refuting a claim they have made. Take the case of a person presenting data supporting the safety and effectiveness of a specific vaccine, the MMR vaccine for instance. In response, a vaccine opponent insults their appearance or personality. This isn`t a refutation or debunking (the first person`s ego, however, might be bruised).

It's important to note that not all conspiracy theories are baseless or false. So I`m not saying they should never be taken seriously in any way. Some conspiracy theories have turned out to be true throughout history. These are conspiracies that have impacted people's lives in many ways. Thus, the specific conspiracy itself isn`t the issue. It`s the ability to distinguish between fact and fiction that is important. When you look into it, you find that that`s what most approaches to addressing conspiracies are actually centred around, rather than on specific conspiracies themselves. That said, let`s go through several of these.

How do you address conspiratorial thinking?

Promote critical thinking skills: Educating individuals on critical thinking, logical reasoning, and information evaluation can help them develop the skills to assess claims and evidence more effectively. Conspiracy theorism, in some cases, can be attributed to lack of education. Meaning, a tendency towards conspiracy theorism can begin at a young age. Thus, in my view, it should be addressed at a young age. Teaching critical thinking could be made a priority in schools at a young age. Further, many social media sites restrict individuals under the age of 13 from using them. However, little regulation is placed on this. A potential solution could be a requirement for ID to join social media sites to confirm the age. Currently, all that's required to join is to check a box stating “I confirm I am 13 or older”. This is easy for anyone under 13 to do. Further, perhaps the age could be raised to 16 or older, so individuals have more life experience and maturity prior to being in the volatile online environment.

Educate on emotional intelligence: For people to even begin considering changing their views and beliefs, it's vital to foster an environment where people feel comfortable expressing their views and concerns. This is really based on emotional intelligence, which is really the core skill in question here. This skill isn`t highly emphasised in school curriculums. This problem manifests itself in not only vaccine hesitancy, but many other social issues. Thus, teaching emotional intelligence from a young age can have very broad benefits for society.

Provide accurate information and debunk myths: Actively counter misinformation by providing accurate information through trustworthy sources. I commonly use the CDC, WHO, and FDA websites. Not only this, it's important to teach this as part of a set of skills. Promote fact-checking initiatives, debunk common conspiracy theories, and share evidence-based explanations to counter false narratives. Teaching these as a set of skills will give a more holistic, well-rounded understanding of why a conspiracy is wrong. Further, once learned, they can be applied to check other possible falsehoods a person may come across throughout their life. They may even lend this knowledge to others in their community, who will pass it on, and so on.

Build trust in institutions: Promote transparency, accountability, and open communication from institutions and authorities. Some have stated that genuine honesty and communication makes people trust one less. In fact, the opposite is true. Honesty makes people trust you more. No, it won't be immediate. No, it won't be a magic bullet. There`s no benefit to lying about that reality. However, over time, when a pattern of authentic behaviour is seen from institutions, that will build public trust.

Address social and economic disparities: Conspiratorial thinking can sometimes arise from feelings of marginalisation or powerlessness. Racial and ethnic minorities are the group that immediately jump to mind for me, as is probably the case for most other people. The Tuskegee experiment, Henrietta Lacks` cervical cancer cells being removed and grown without her awareness or permission, and many others - these have all culminated in a lack of trust among ethnic minorities for healthcare institutions, authorities, and policymakers.

Conclusion:

People are complex. There's certainly no debate about that. So it's clear that there will be no one catch-all approach - there will be many. Every one of them are underpinned by good communication practices. It is that that we need to emphasise when discussing difficult topics like vaccines.

References:

Why do people believe conspiracies?

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